Trump blasts polls showing him to be least popular incoming president in modern history

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“The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating polls. They are rigged just like before,” Donald Trump tweeted. | Getty

POLITICO

Polls showing Donald Trump with a historically low approval rating for an incoming president-elect are not to be trusted, Trump himself wrote on Twitter Tuesday morning.

After all, he wrote, they’re the same polls that suggested for months he would lose last year’s presidential election.

“The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating polls. They are rigged just like before,” Trump wrote on Twitter Tuesday morning.

The post comes on the same morning that two polls, one from CNN and another conducted jointly by ABC News and The Washington Post, showed Trump to be the least popular incoming president in modern history. Trump’s approval rating in the CNN poll released Tuesday sat at just 40 percent, 44 points below the 84 percent that President Barack Obama took office with in 2009.

Just 40 percent of those surveyed by The Washington Post and ABC News said they held a favorable opinion of Trump, by far the lowest of any incoming president dating back at least to President Jimmy Carter’s 1977 inauguration. President Obama entered the White House in 2009 with a 79 percent favorable rating.

Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wis.), a vice chairman of the Trump transition team’s executive committee, said Tuesday that the president-elect’s regular friction with the press has taken a toll on his poll numbers, but that his popularity is likely to rebound.

“What’s actually happening here is the public fight that Mr. Trump is having with CNN and other media groups is taking some skin off his poll numbers and it’s gone down,” Duffy said on CNN’s “New Day.”

5 numbers that mattered this week

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Donald Trump may have lost the first presidential debate, but he might not sink too far in the polls because of it. | Getty

POLITICO

Continuing our POLITICO feature, where we dig into the latest polls and loop in other data streams to tell the story of the 2016 campaign. Here are five numbers that mattered this week.

The reviews are in: Donald Trump lost the first presidential debate. But he might not sink too far in the polls because of it.

Of the nine scientific national polls conducted either immediately after Monday night’s debate or in the days following that asked debate-watchers who won, Hillary Clinton won all nine – often by wide margins. Same for the four post-debate, battleground-state polls released this week: Clinton went four-for-four.

That was also the verdict in a new Fox News poll released Friday night: Among likely voters who watched the debate, 60 percent said Clinton won, while only 22 percent picked Trump as the winner.

Still, Trump’s share of the vote among likely voters in a four-way matchup was unchanged from the previous poll in mid-September: 40 percent. Clinton’s share ticked up slightly, from 41 percent to 43 percent.

Trump is still winning about 80 percent of self-identified Republicans, unchanged from the previous poll. And he’s still winning about half of white voters.

The debate is probably best described as a squandered opportunity for Trump: He kept his base, but he didn’t expand his coalition. While the percentage of undecided voters decreased from 6 percent in mid-September to 3 percent in the new poll, Trump held steady.

Trump could be running up near his ceiling: He’s at 40 percent in the four-way ballot, and 44 percent in a head-to-head matchup with Clinton, who is at 49 percent without the other candidates included. Expanding past that will require changing voters’ minds: A combined 55 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, including 49 percent who say they have a “strongly unfavorable” view.

Even though Trump retained his support on the ballot test in the Fox News poll, he damaged himself in other ways in the debate. The percentage of likely voters who view Trump as honest and trustworthy shrank to 31 percent, down from 39 percent two weeks ago. And 62 percent of likely voters say Trump is not honest or trustworthy – one point higher than the 61 percent who say Clinton isn’t honest.

Women are a particular weak spot for the GOP nominee. In mid-September, 48 percent of white men and 44 percent of white women found Trump honest and trustworthy. Now, 44 percent of white men view Trump as honest and trustworthy, but only 34 percent of women agree.

Both candidates continue to struggle badly on this measure among younger voters. Seventy-one percent of voters younger than age 35 view Clinton as not honest or trustworthy, a point higher than the 70 percent of young voters who say Trump isn’t honest or trustworthy. (Younger voters still tilt toward Clinton on the ballot test: 44 percent to Trump’s 28 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 17 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 8 percent.)

Trump touted his “winning temperament” at the Hofstra debate, but he failed to make the sale to the American people.

A 59-percent majority of likely voters said in the Fox News poll they don’t think Trump has the temperament to be president – equal to the mid-September poll.

Clinton, on the other hand, boosted her numbers significantly. Two-thirds of likely voters, 67 percent, say Clinton has the temperament to be president, up from 59 percent two weeks ago.

Trump also failed to convince voters on one of his most significant thematic arguments on Monday: that his lack of government experience is an asset, and Clinton’s experience is a liability.

The Fox News poll asked voters whether it was a “good thing” or “bad thing” that Trump “has never been in government.” Respondents were split – but tilted negative: 43 percent said it was good, and 47 percent said it was bad.

For Clinton, they asked whether the fact Clinton “has been in government for more than 20 years” was a good or bad thing, and they found voters saw her experience more as an benefit. A 53-percent majority said Clinton’s experience was a good thing, and just 40 percent saw it as a bad thing.

There’s a massive gender gap on this question, at least among white voters. While white men say Trump’s lack of experience is a good thing by a wide margin, 60 percent to 25 percent, more white women say it’s a bad thing (49 percent) than a good thing (43 percent). Only 32 percent of suburban women say Trump’s inexperience is a good thing.

The numbers for Clinton are just as stark: Only 29 percent of white men say Clinton’s experience was a good thing, but 56 percent of white women see it as good. And more than two-thirds of suburban women – the voters Trump needs to attract in states like Pennsylvania and Colorado – say Clinton’s experience is good.

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida gives Clinton a 4-point lead over Trump built mainly on Clinton’s strength – and Trump’s weakness – among Latino voters.

Clinton leads among Hispanics, 64 percent to 29 percent, the poll shows. That’s a more significant advantage than Barack Obama enjoyed in Florida in 2012 (60 percent) and 2008 (57 percent), according to exit polls.

Trump is significantly underperforming past Republicans among Hispanics in Florida. Mitt Romney won 39 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012, and John McCain won 42 percent in 2008.

Part of that is a long-term trend: Cuban-Americans, who are more Republican than other Latinos, are a smaller percentage of the Florida Hispanic population. And younger Cuban-Americans are trending more Democratic.

But Trump seems to be accelerating these trends this year. And most of the interviews in this poll were conducted before a Newsweek report alleged one of Trump’s companies circumvented the embargo against Cuba in the 1990s.

Poll: Trump nomination sparks more fear than hope

From The Smoke-filled Room

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Getty

POLITICO

The fact that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party scares voters more than it surprises them, according to an NBC Neww/SurveyMonkey poll released Tuesday.

Forty-seven percent of respondents said their reaction to Trump becoming the presumptive nominee was fear. Just 26 percent said they were hopeful, while another 21 percent said they were angry and 16 percent were surprised.

Thirty-five percent of respondents would be scared to see Hillary Clinton win the Democratic presidential nomination, while 29 percent would be hopeful, 22 percent would be angry and just 7 percent would be surprised.

The former secretary of state tops Bernie Sanders in the national poll by 12 percentage points among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, 53 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided.

Sanders has closed the gap by 2 points in the past week. Despite that, however, voters overwhelmingly believe Clinton will ultimately clinch the nomination. Eighty-four percent said they think Clinton will win the nomination, while just 15 percent believe Sanders can still win.

In a general-election match-up against Trump, Sanders fares far better. The Vermont senator leads the real estate mogul by double digits, 53 percent to 40 percent. Clinton, on the other hand, bests Trump by just 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

The poll of 12,714 adults, 11,089 of whom say they are registered to vote, was conducted May 2-8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points among registered voters and plus or minus 2 percentage points in the Democratic sample.

By

CNN/ORC Poll: Donald Trump now competitive in general election

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CNN POLITICS

Since announcing his campaign in late June, Donald Trump has quickly leapt to the top of the Republican field, leading recent polls nationally, in Iowa and in New Hampshire. And now, for the first time in CNN/ORC polling, his gains among the Republican Party have boosted him enough to be competitive in the general election.

The poll finds Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by just 6 points, a dramatic tightening since July. Trump is the one of three Republican candidates who have been matched against Clinton multiple times in CNN/ORC polling to significantly whittle the gap between himself and the Democratic frontrunner. He trailed Clinton by 16 points in a July poll, and narrowed that gap by boosting his standing among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (from 67% support in July to 79% now), men (from 46% in July to 53% now) and white voters (from 50% to 55%).

But Clinton still holds the cards overall in the race for the White House, leading four Republican contenders: She tops Trump and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker by 6 points each among registered voters, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush by 9 points, and businesswoman Carly Fiorina by 10 points.

Continue reading…

Hillary’s in danger, Trump is sunk: The hard truths America is ignoring this election season

Hillary's in danger, Trump is sunk: The hard truths America is ignoring this election season
Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Jeb Bush (Credit: AP/Reuters/Cliff Owen/Evan Vucci/Richard Drew/David Goldman)

SALON

While pundits regurgitate the same bad information, we’re missing the earth-shattering stories under our noses

In January, I began writing a weekly column for Salon. Hillary Clinton was still in pre-campaign mode but already losing ground — churning out formulaic answers to stock questions, delivering pricey speeches to the privileged, hobnobbing with Wall Street players while we peasants, now a working majority of the body politic, stocked up on torches and pitchforks. I wrote that her political model — neoliberal economics wed, as it must be, to pay-to-play politics — felt spent. In March, her emails surfaced. She waited a whole week to stage a brief, dodgy, purposefully chaotic press conference. I thought it a serious problem, especially when viewed in the context of her political history and persona, so I wrote that too.

On both points I got hurricane-force blowback from Clinton backers. As is the custom now, a lot of it was personal (why do you hate the Clintons, we hate you, you’re stupid.) or warmed over consultant speak ( the election’s so far off everyone will forget, the issue’s so abstract no one will care). What my critics shared, apart from their devotion to Hillary and contempt for me, was polling data. In surveys taken after the story broke, Clinton held on to her huge lead. (Had I not seen them? How could Salon hire a political columnist who didn’t even read polls?)

Last week, I wrote of another politician in trouble (at least if you regard Donald Trump as a politician).  I said his debate performance ended any chance he had of being seen as a serious person, let alone a serious presidential candidate. It was a cringe-inducing spectacle, best understood in psychological rather than political terms, a portrait of a man unhinged by narcissistic rage. In the history of presidential debates, it had no equal and anyone not unhinged by rage or ideology should have seen it.

I got the same sort of feedback about Trump, albeit from different folks; personal attacks and political clichés wrapped in polling data. For three days after the debate, there was no data, so reporters hedged their bets. Of the few who took a flier most got it wrong, many writing admiringly of Trump’s feistiness and flair. On Sunday, NBC released a poll showing him at 23 percent; up a point among GOP primary voters.

Armed with data, everybody got it wrong, again. Trump was proclaimed “Teflon Don,” spokesmodel of the month for an America that’s even madder than you thought.

I tell Clintonites upset by my columns that rather than try to get me to stop writing them they should get her to start reading them. One reason they don’t may be the hypnotic power of polls to keep us from seeing what’s in front of our noses. Like Chico Marx asking, “Who you gonna believe, me or you own eyes?” polls make us question what we see. If you didn’t see that Clinton was digging herself a deeper hole every day, or that Trump came across in Cleveland as arrogant, vindictive, uninformed and out of control, you probably read too many polls and think too much about politics.

Read all together and in their entirety, polls can tell a bit more of the truth. That NBC poll also put Trump ahead on the question of who did worst in debate: 29 percent picked him; 14 percent picked Rand Paul; 11 percent said Jeb Bush. No one else was in double digits. In a Suffolk Univ. poll, 55 percent of Iowa Republicans said the debate left them less inclined to vote for Trump.

In the same way, Hillary’s horse race numbers held steady for a while after the email eruption, but other numbers went south fast, including those in which a majority of voters tell any pollster who asks that she isn’t honest or trustworthy.

Sooner or later polls may catch up to where the truth is, or at least was. In the latest ones Clinton trails Walker, Huckabee, Rubio and Carson in Iowa; Walker, Bush and Paul in New Hampshire, and Sanders in New Hampshire. I’ve no faith in their predictive power, but they do affirm a deepening disaffection. I once said by the time Clinton fell behind in polls it would be too late to save her. That overstates the case but this much is clear: She must change and polls alone can’t tell her how. She has to see it for herself, and then believe what she sees. I’m not sure she can.

Polls do worse things than get races wrong. Their most insidious effect is on the quality and direction of public debate. They blind us to glaring truths about issues as well as people. A key issue in this race is the integrity, accountability and efficiency of government. Republicans talk more and more about it, Democrats hardly at all. In case you didn’t notice, the fallen state of politics and government is what Trump talks about most; that he does so vividly and bluntly is a big part of what some must consider his charm.

Credit Trump this far: When he says he didn’t arrive at his message via a poll, he’s probably telling the truth. He looked at government, stopped talking long enough to listen to a few people, and saw it was an issue voters really care about. Hillary Clinton on the other hand, relying on polls to plot her every step, never talks about it, except to repeat the Democrats’ mantric vow to overturn Citizens United and say a few words in a single speech about getting agencies better computers and improving management. It’s what happens when we let polls obscure core values and gut instincts. Here, even Trump’s gut instinct works better than Clinton’s polls.

Fox Poll: 29 Percent Would Be ‘Scared’ If Obama Was Re-Elected

To paraphrase what former Rep. Anthony Weiner said about the GOP: Fox News is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Republican Party. Thus, their reporting, opinion polls and underlying agenda are designed to promote the GOP meme…

TPM2012

Republican efforts to paint President Obama as a liberal bogeyman have long been operational — he’s been the biggest spender in a storied history of Democratic big spenders, he’s instituting death panels, and of course, he wasn’t even born in America.

So Fox News thought they’d really drive the point home by asking the following question about all the major Presidential candidates in their new poll: What would your reaction be if [insert candidate here] were to become the next president? Possible answers: enthusiastic, pleased, neutral, displeased, and scared.

Well, surprise, surprise, some people are a little frightened. Twenty-nine percent of those polled by Fox said they would be “scared” if Obama were re-elected, 21 said the same about Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 18 for businessman Herman Cain and 14 for former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney.

But not everyone is so afraid. A combined 37 percent said they would be “enthusiastic” and “pleased” if the president were to get a second term, while Romney only saw 21 percent in that group, Cain 23 and Perry 17.

There were a few odd questions in the Fox poll. One asked “Now that Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi has been killed, how confident are you that the people who removed him will cooperate and work with the United States?” Another asked “Considering both the full slate of Republican contenders and Democrat Barack Obama, do you think you or one of your close friends are more qualified to be president than anyone running right now, or not?” to which one fifth of the respondents literally said that a friend of theirs is more qualified than any of the current candidates.

The Fox News poll used 904 live telephone interviews with registered voters conducted from October 23rd to the 25th. It has a sampling error of three percent.

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Tea Party Movement Getting Americans Steamed

No surprise there, especially after the debt ceiling debacle…

TPMDC

The debt ceiling fight turned out to be a damper on the American economy, and for the approval ratings of political leaders in Washington. But it’s starting to consume the same political entity that decided to make raising it a major issue: the Tea Party. Last week saw the release of three separate polls that showed Americans are not just more skeptical of their movement, but growing tired of their role in the political process, which builds on previous evidence that the Tea Party is being pushed away by independent voters.

The Tea Party movement, as an idea, was originally about anger at the way things turned out after 2008. Congress had been taken over by Democrats, and President Obama came into office after a change election with high approval ratings and the political capital to make that change. Then, surprisingly, those Democrats didn’t work to enact Republican policies, they proposed and passed a few of their own. This was not how government is supposed to work, according to some very conservative Americans.

So they got some signs and some bags of tea and a few video cameras followed. They protested what they called an oncoming wave of socialism perpetrated by the Democrats who controlled the legislative and executive branches of government. Then they went to some town halls and yelled about the possible reforms to the American health care system. When that passed, they started supporting candidates for Congress that not only advocated the policies they wanted but also held the same contempt for the government process that they did. Then some of those candidates won, and they had to govern.

That’s really when more Americans started to have a more formed opinion on the Tea Party, and over the last few months that opinion has been turning increasingly sour.

“The Tea Party has become somewhat less popular over time, even before the current debt crisis,” said Carroll Doherty, Assistant Director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. Pew itself had released some data showing as much: in April of this year there had been a fifteen point jump in the negative rating of the Tea Party amongst all voters in a Pew survey, up from a similar survey in March of 2010.

Continue reading here…

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Six in 10 Americans Want Obama’s Policies to Succeed, but Many Doubt They Will

I’d like to see 70-80% of the country on board to see the POTUS’ policies succeed…

Politics Daily

Six out of 10 Americans hope that President Obama’s policies will succeed — a percentage that has dropped measurably from last year — but the public is roughly split when it comes to whether they think those policies will in fact be successful, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Dec. 17-20.

Sixty-one percent want Obama’s program to succeed while 27 percent hope his policies fail. Nine percent have mixed feelings and 3 percent have no opinion. Last December, 71 percent hoped Obama’s policies would succeed compared to 22 percent who wanted them to fail. In March 2009, 86 percent wanted those policies to succeed and 11 percent hoped they would fail. The remainder had mixed opinions.

When it comes to what Americans believe will happen (putting aside whether or not they want Obama’s policies to succeed), 47 percent predict failure while 44 percent say they will succeed. Six percent have mixed opinions and 2 percent are undecided.

CNN polling director Keating Holland called the 61 percent who are in Obama’s corner “a fairly robust number” but singled out as significant the size of the drop-off in the number of those hoping for his success as well as the fact that a plurality predicts his policies will likely fail.

(A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted Dec. 9-13 said 64 percent were only somewhat confident or not at all confident that Obama had the right set of goals and policies to be president, while 36 percent were quite or extremely confident.)
 

The CNN poll said that one factor working in Obama’s favor is that whether Americans approve of the job he is doing or not, 73 percent approve of the president as a person.

Fifty-one percent of those surveyed said it was good for the country that the GOP had taken control of the House while 42 percent said it was bad, with 4 percent answering “neither” and 2 percent undecided.     More…

Study: Cell phones tilt polls

I’ve held a long-standing opinion that pollsters don’t contact people who use cell phones when conducting political polls, thus making the result less accurate. 

Now a report has come out confirming what many progressive bloggers have felt all along:  polls that had no input from cell phone users tend to favor Republicans…

Politico

This month’s election results lent support to what many pollsters have long suspected: Polls that don’t include cell phones favor Republicans.

And as more Americans come to rely on cell phones, the disparity is widening, according to a study released Monday by the Pew Research Center.

Pew’s surveys that included cell phones were dramatically closer to the actual midterm election results than they would have been without cell phones in the sample, according to the report.

A national Pew poll conducted days before the election found likely voters preferring a Republican to a Democrat for their representative in Congress by a 6-point margin when both land lines and cell phones were surveyed.

That margin closely matches the national vote for House candidates, according to the latest count: Republicans led by a 7-point margin.

But if the Pew pollsters had called only land lines, disregarding their cell phone sample, they would have found the GOP ahead by 12 points.

The new study bolsters the argument that polls that don’t call cell phones will be systematically biased. Calling cell phones poses numerous challenges for pollsters — from the difficulty of determining where respondents live based on their cell phone numbers to the fact that machine-aided dialing of cell phones is illegal.

While previous Pew reports had found a gulf between its overall sample and its land-line-only sample, the election result shows which one was right. The winner, clearly, was the sample that included both.

The election result “is a very good opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of your methods,” Pew’s director of survey research, Scott Keeter, said. “We don’t have that many opportunities to have that kind of validation.”

And while Pew looked for evidence of a gap only in its own polling data, an independent analysis found a similar gulf existed at polling firms using different methods during the 2010 cycle.

The six national polling firms that surveyed both cell phones and land lines in the week before the election put Republicans ahead by an average of 6 points, while the four that called only land lines showed a GOP advantage

Sarah Palin’s *Unfavorability* Numbers Hit New High, Survey Finds

This should come as no surprise to many from either party as well as independents…

Politics Daily

The number of Americans viewing Sarah Palin unfavorably has hit the highest point since she burst onto the national stage over two years ago, according to a poll out Friday.

The Gallup survey conducted in the days after the Nov. 2 election found more than half of Americans — 52 percent — hold a negative opinion of the former Alaska governor. Only 40 percent viewed her favorably, which ties her lowest score from about a year ago.

Palin, the GOP’s vice presidential candidate in 2008, is among Republican names being floated as a possible presidential pick in two years time. The poll found she might have a good chance of capturing the nomination: fully 80 percent of Republicans have a positive opinion of her.

She might have a harder time in the general election. Gallup found 81 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents viewed her unfavorably — while fewer than four in 10 view her favorably.

Read the full Gallup report here.