Just four months after posting historic election gains, Republicans are experiencing a reality check about 2012: President Barack Obama is going to be a lot tougher to defeat than he looked late last year.
Having gone from despondency in 2008 to euphoria last November, a more sober GOP is wincing in the light of day as they consider just how difficult unseating an incumbent president with a massive warchest is going to be, even with a still-dismal economy.
“I consider him a favorite, albeit a slight favorite,” said former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove. “Republicans underestimate President Obama at their own peril.”
Much of the GOP realism is rooted in a long-standing truism of American politics – that absent a major crisis of confidence, it’s highly difficult to defeat a sitting president.
But aside from the traditional advantages of incumbency, Republicans are also fretting about the strength of Obama’s campaign infrastructure, the potential limitations of their own field and, particularly, the same demographic weaknesses that haunted them in 2008.
The best indicator of the GOP outlook on 2012 may be the shape of the party’s prospective field. Many of the contenders who can afford to sit out a presidential election cycle and wait for an open-seat race – Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush come to mind – seem intent on doing so. More here…
- Top Republicans shy away from presidency bids (ft.com)
- Deal on Spending Cuts Would Defer Tougher Decisions (online.wsj.com)
- PARTY HOPPER: Jimmy McMillan switches to GOP (politico.com)
- US Sen. John Thune won’t run against Obama in 2012 (sfgate.com)
- Voters Prefer Huckabee and Romney for GOP President, Poll Finds (politicsdaily.com)
- John Thune, Why Senator’s On GOP Short List For 2012 (huffingtonpost.com)
- GOP Governors Undermine Obama Agenda (huffingtonpost.com)
- GOP bets future on Wisconsin (politico.com)