Public Policy Polling

BIG TROUBLE…

 

The Huffington Post

Democrats Have A Shot At Taking Back The House As Republican Popularity Continues To Drop: Poll

A new survey of 25 GOP-held districts shows dwindling favorability for Republican members of the House in the wake of the recent government shutdown.

The survey, conducted by liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling and funded by MoveOn.org, is the third in a series of polls that indicate Democrats have a shot at taking back the House of Representatives in the 2014 election cycle.

The results of the latest survey show that incumbent Republicans in 15 of the 25 districts polled trail generic Democratic candidates. When combined with the results of the previous surveys, the polls show that generic Democratic candidates lead in 37 of 61 GOP-held districts.

When voters were informed their Republican candidate supported the government shutdown, 11 more districts flipped and one race became a tie.

Democrats in the House only need to see a net increase of 17 seats in order to take back the majority. This poll indicates that Democrats could see an increase of as many as 49 seats.

Public Policy Polling indicated several caveats to the results. The surveys were conducted during a high-profile budget crisis debate, a year before the elections will take place. And incumbent Republican candidates were compared to “generic Democrats,” who may not represent the actual candidates each district will see.

“Democrats must recruit strong candidates and run effective campaigns in individual districts if they are to capitalize on the vulnerability revealed by these surveys,” Public Policy Polling’s Jim Williams said of the caveat, “and they must maintain a significant national advantage over Republicans.”

Recent polls conducted by the Pew Research Center and NBC/Wall Street Journal are consistent with the survey’s claim that the Republican party took a hit from the fiscal crisis. Pew found that more Americans blamed Republicans for the shutdown, and NBC/Wall Street Journal found that the Republican party was “badly damaged” by it.

Forgetting the relevant Katrina detail, eight years later

President Obama was NOT the president during Hurricane Katrina…

The Maddow Blog

How much do Louisiana Republicans dislike President Obama? Many of them blame him for the government’s tragic response to Hurricane Katrina — which struck the state more [than] three years before Obama took office.

The latest survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, provided exclusively to TPM, showed an eye-popping divide among Republicans in the Bayou State when it comes to accountability for the government’s post-Katrina blunders.

Twenty-eight percent said they think former President George W. Bush, who was in office at the time, was more responsible for the poor federal response while 29 percent said Obama, who was still a freshman U.S. Senator when the storm battered the Gulf Coast in 2005, was more responsible. Nearly half of Louisiana Republicans — 44 percent — said they aren’t sure who to blame.

I realize that 2005 was a while ago, and among Republicans there’s some disagreement about the efficacy of George W. Bush’s handling of the crisis, but the PPP results really don’t make any sense.

So what explains this? There are a couple of things to keep in mind. First, it’s possible that after several years in which the political world described all sorts of different developments as “Obama’s Katrina,” a lot of folks may have gotten confused and started to connect the words “Obama” and “Katrina” in a mistaken way.

Second, let’s not underestimate the scope of reflexive GOP opposition to the president, in Louisiana and elsewhere, and the way in which that leads Republican to blame Obama for just about anything. More Louisiana Republicans blame Obama than Bush for the response to Katrina, which obviously don’t make sense, but I imagine if PPP asked, a non-trivial number of Louisiana Republicans would also blame the president for 9/11, Watergate, the Hindenburg disaster, the 1919 White Sox, and the U.S. Civil War.

In other words, Louisiana Republicans may say they blame Obama for the response to Katrina, but what they’re really saying is they just hate the president and blame him reflexively for everything.

Senators Lose Support After Opposing Gun Background Checks, Poll Shows

The Huffington Post

Senators in several states who voted earlier this month against increasing background checks for gun buyers have since seen their approval ratings noticeably drop, according to new polls released Monday by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-Alaska) net approval rating dropped 16 points, as she shed much of her previous cross-party appeal. Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) saw his numbers dive 18 points, from a positive to a negative rating.

Not all of the change can be attributed to the vote. Portman, for instance, saw his approval drop among Republicans when he announced his support for gay marriage in March. But in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada and Ohio, at least 60 percent of voters supported background checks, and many expressed disappointment with politicians who voted otherwise.

Fifty-two percent of Arizona voters said they were less likely to support Sen. Jeff Flake (R) for reelection due to his “no” vote, while 46 percent of Nevadans said the same of Sen. Dean Heller (R). More than a third of voters were less likely to back Portman as well as Alaska Sens. Mark Begich (D) and Murkowski. A previous PPP poll found that Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) also saw her ratings tumble 15 points, likely due in part to her vote against background checks.

Much of the lost support comes from independent or moderate voters.

PPP hasn’t yet conducted polling on how senators who supported the bill have fared. But Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who cosponsored background check legislation, saw his approval rating increase by a net 7 points, according to a Quinnipiac University pollreleased Friday.

Nationally, most polls taken since the shooting in Newtown, Conn., have found thatupwards of 80 percent of people support gun background checks, and that there isrelatively little partisan division on the issue.

Opinions were less unified on the actual legislation considered in the Senate, but most still say they wish it had gone through. A 65 percent majority of Americans said the measure should have passed, including 45 percent of Republicans and a majority of Democrats and independents, according to a Gallup poll released Monday.

 

Fox News’ Credibility At ‘Record Low': PPP Poll

The Huffington Post

Fox News’ credibility has fallen 9 percent since three years ago, according to new Public Policy Polling (PPP) results released on Wednesday.

The annual poll asks participants to rate their trust in multiple networks including Fox News, MSNBC, CNN, PBS, Comedy Central, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News. According to PPP’s press release:

Just like its actual ratings, Fox News has hit a record low in the four years that we’ve been doing this poll. 41% of voters trust it to 46% who do not. To put those numbers into some perspective the first time we did this poll, in 2010, 49% of voters trusted it to 37% who did not.

Just like last year, researchers also found that Fox News is both the least trusted and most trusted network when compared to the other networks in the survey. Thirty-four percent said they trust Fox News the most, while 39 percent said they trust it the least.

Other news outlets are not entirely better off. Thirty-five percent of respondents said they trust MSNBC, while 44 percent said they do not. When it comes to CNN, 38 percent of voters said they trust the network, but 43 percent said they trust the cable network the least.

PBS is the only outlet that respondents trust more than distrust, with 52 percent of voters saying they trust the network, and 29 percent saying they do not.

Click over to PPP for the full report.

 

McConnell suggests Obama ‘manufactured’ poll to make him ‘most unpopular’ senator

[Image via Gage Skidmore, Creative Commons licensed]

Here we go again with the “Obama is to blame…” meme from GOP politicians and right-wing media…

The Raw Story

A recent fundraising email from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s campaign suggested that President Barack Obama ordered the firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) to “manufacture” a survey that said the Kentucky Republican was the “most unpopular Senator in the country.”

A poll released by the left-leaning firm on Tuesday indicated that only 37 percent of Kentucky voters approved of McConnell.

“Both in terms of raw disapproval (55%) and net approval (-18) McConnell has the worst numbers of any of his peers, taking that mantle from Nebraska’s Ben Nelson,” PPP wrote.

But in an email published by the Louisville Eccentric Observer on Thursday, McConnell campaign manager Jesse Benton implied that Obama and other Democrats had conspired with PPP to fix the poll.

“Barack Obama and his allies told us what they were going to do,” Benton wrote. “They think if they can manufacture a difficult re-election for Senator McConnell back home in Kentucky then they can push our Leader around in Washington.”

He continued: “The partisan PPP polling company, which has been used as a tool for Obama Democrats to manufacture circumstances that don’t exist all across the country, descended upon Kentucky to proclaim that Senator McConnell has a 37% approval rating. The poll is laughable. But, the liberal press is gobbling it right up.”

“What was really surprising was that even cooked books couldn’t produce a Democrat candidate who could beat Senator McConnell head to head,” Benton said. “Cooked polls are certainly only the start of the liberals’ plans. They will throw the kitchen sink at us. This poll is just the tip of iceberg , and Leader McConnell needs your help. Please help with a contribution of $50, $100, $250 or even $500 today.”

PPP Director Tom Jensen told the Louisville Eccentric Observer that letter from McConnell’s campaign were similar to comments made by Republicans who were in denial about former presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign.

“I think one of the biggest lessons of the 2012 campaign was that when Republicans are attacking polls it’s a sure sign that they’re losing,” Jensen explained. “GOP campaigns all over the country made these kinds of claims about us this year and we ended up calling every state in the Presidential race and Senate race we polled correctly. Nate Silver found that to the extent there was any bias in our polling, it was actually pro-Republican.”

study from Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos found that PPP was one of the top three most accurate polling firms during the 2012 presidential election.

Wednesday Morning Roundup – 12-12-12

Washington’s Deceptions
‘Reform’ taxes? ‘Fix’ Medicare? Yeah, right.

Scalia equates being gay with murder
Scalia once famously complained that if sodomy is legal, then states couldn’t regulat..

Boehner’s crazy caucus juggling act 
It’s not easy being orange. House Speaker John Boehner’s floor rant on Tuesday did n..

Why Hillary Clinton Would be Strong in 2016
Nate Silver sees Hillary Clinton’s high favorability numbers falling if she moves to..

Claims of ‘School-to-Prison’ Pipeline in Mississippi
Claims of ‘School-to-Prison’ Pipeline in Mississippi

McConnell is Least Popular Senator in the Country
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) with a ..

White House: North Korea Missile Launch ‘Highly Provocative’
WASHINGTON — The White House says North Korea’s launch of a long-range ba..

Michigan Governor Signs Union Busting Bills Behind Closed Doors
Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) announced during a press conference on Tuesday afterno..

Beyond Fox News: The GOP is realizing it needs to talk to the rest of ..
If the GOP ever wants to reach Latinos and women, among others, it needs to move beyo..

Soledad O’Brien pins GOP’s Sessions over fiscal cliff proposal to cut ..
Soledad O’Brien was not amused that Mr. Sessions plans on taking food out of the mout..

Elizabeth Warren Leading Scott Brown In Two New Polls

Elizabeth Warren Scott Brown

Great news!

The Huffington Post

The polling bump produced by the Democratic National Convention appears to have helped more than just President Barack Obama, as two new polls in Massachusetts also show a parallel rise in the standings of Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren.

The two new polls, both released on Sunday, show Warren with slim leads over Republican Senator Scott Brown. The first, conducted by Western New England University’s Polling Institute (WNEU) in partnership with the website MassLive.com, shows Warren leading by 6 percentage points (50 percent to 44 percent). A previous WNEU poll fielded in June had shown Warren with a narrower 2-point edge over Brown (45 percent to 43 percent).

The second new poll, from Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm that conducts surveys for local Democratic campaigns, gives Warren a 2-point advantage (48 percent to 46 percent). Warren’s margin on the new PPP survey represents a net gain of 7 points from its previous poll, conducted just before the Republican convention, which had Brown ahead by 5 (49 percent to 44 percent).

The WNEU poll used live interviewers to call for a full week, from Sept. 6 to Sept. 13, beginning on the final night of the Democratic convention. PPP’s automated recorded-voice methodology called for three days, from Sept. 13 to Sept. 16.

Despite the different methods, the two polls produced very similar snapshots of attitudes toward the two candidates. Both show net positive job approval ratings for Scott Brown as they did earlier in the year, and both now show net positive favorable ratings for Warren. Both also indicate improved ratings of the rivals following the party conventions and months of campaign advertising.

Continue reading here…

15% of Ohio Republicans Believe Romney Deserves More Credit For Killing Bin Laden

Are Americans that dumbed-down?

(This article was supposed to be published a few days ago.  However, I just found it in the recent drafts area.  It’s still worth publishing.  It says a lot about our populous…)

Voice4America

According to a recent poll done by Public Policy Polling, 15% of Ohio Republicans Believe Mitt Romney Deserves More Credit For Killing Osama Bin Laden than President Obama. The poll also shows that 47% of Ohio Republicans are not sure of who deserves more credit, either President Obama or Mitt Romney. This shows that an alarming 62% of Ohio Republicans either believe Romney deserves credit for killing Bin Laden or are not sure.

Ohio Republicans

The disparity continues when the results from North Carolina are reviewed. Among North Carolina Republicans, 15% say Romney deserves more credit while 56% are unsure. This means that 71% of North Carolina Republicans either believe Romney deserves credit for killing Bin Laden or are not sure.

NC Republicans

If you believe that this is too ridiculous to be true, the poll results can be found here on Public Policy Polling

The results were also featured on MSNBC

FREE FALLING: Newt Plummets In Iowa

Looks like “The Newt” is about to be history, once again…

The Huffington Post

Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich suffered a big drop in support in Iowa with Ron Paul taking the lead weeks before a key caucus in the state, according to a Democratic polling firm.

The Public Policy Polling telephone survey of 597 likely Republican caucus voters in Iowa found Paul, a congressman from Texas, leading with 23 percent of the vote, followed by 20 percent for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and 14 percent for Gingrich.

“Newt Gingrich’s campaign is rapidly imploding and Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row,” the polling firm, which is affiliated with the Democratic Party, said in a statement.

Gingrich’s share of the vote in the past two weeks has gone from 27 percent to 22 percent to 14 percent, in the latest poll, taken Dec 16-18, with a margin of error for the survey of plus or minus four points, it said.

Continue reading here…

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Donald Trump Says Public Scorn Greater Than He Expected

What the heck did Donald Trump think, that his “poll numbers” which he referred to at every opportunity, would stay high after:

1) The POTUS revealed his long form birth certificate?

2) After the smack down that President  Obama and Seth Meyer gave him at the WHCD?

3) After the POTUS’ spectacular announcement about capturing/killing Osama bin Laden?

Huffington Post

NASHUA, New Hampshire (Reuters) – Real estate magnate Donald Trump suggested Wednesday it’s not much fun flirting with the idea of running for president in the face of relentless attacks and ridicule.

“Nobody said it was going to be easy, but I had no idea I would get hammered in the way I’ve been hammered the past few weeks,” Trump said in Nashua, New Hampshire.

The billionaire host of NBC-TV’s “Celebrity Apprentice” has hinted for months that he will run for the 2012 Republican nomination for a chance to take on President Barack Obama.

But Trump has slipped badly in surveys taken since Obama released his birth certificate confirming he was born in the United States.

The so-called “birther” issue had been a major issue of Trump’s nascent campaign.

Public Policy Polling, which in April showed Trump leading the Republican field with 26 percent support, this week showed him with just 8 percent support.

Still, 700 businesspeople turned out for a sold-out Nashua Chamber of Commerce event. Trump delivered a speech heavy on his post-birther themes: high gas prices, Obama’s healthcare reforms, and U.S. dealings with China and OPEC.

“If Obama gets re-elected, I think your taxes are going to go through the roof,” Trump warned.

Still no word on whether a White House bid is for real, especially now that The Donald’s political star is dimming.

“I’m thinking about running,” he said.

Trump referred to the April 30 White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington, during which Obama and comedian Seth Myers mocked the tycoon mercilessly while Trump sat in the audience, stone-faced.

Even Republicans have been taking shots, he noted.

“I haven’t done anything, in all fairness,” he said. “I haven’t even announced whether or not I’m running.”