Despite trailing Rick Santorum in most recent national polls, Mitt Romney appears to have momentum on his side in Michigan and a big lead in Arizona, just four days before both states hold Republican presidential primaries.
In Michigan, two new automated, recorded-voice surveys show Romney with a small, single-digit lead. The two polls, from Rasmussen Reports and Mitchell Research , were both conducted on Thursday, Feb. 23, and are the first to be fielded in Michigan entirely following Wednesday night’s nationally televised candidate debate.
The Rasmussen Reports poll gives Romney a six-point lead over Santorum (40 to 34 percent), a reversal from the four-point Romney deficit the firm found just three days earlier. The Mitchell Research poll shows Romney three points ahead of Santorum (36 to 33 percent), a big shift from the nine-point Santorum lead the firm reported one week earlier.
The new findings are slightly better for Romney than the results of five other surveys conducted earlier in the week, which collectively described a very close race between the top two candidates, ranging from a four-point Santorum lead to a two-point Romney advantage.
The HuffPost Pollster’s Michigan chart, which attempts to smooth out random variation in the all public polling data, shows that the biggest change over the past week has been an increase in support for Romney. Over the same period, Santorum’s numbers have declined only slightly. The chart’s trend lines now give Romney a very slight lead over Santorum (36.3 to 34.7 percent), followed by Ron Paul (11.2 percent) and Newt Gingrich (8.0 percent).
- Mitt Romney’s negative advertising hasn’t worked on Rick Santorum (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
- Michigan Polls Narrow: Will Mitt Romney Overtake Rick Santorum? (huffingtonpost.com)
- Mitt Romney Adviser: ‘We’re Going To Win Michigan’ (huffingtonpost.com)
- Gallup: Romney up by four on Obama (thehill.com)
- Romney Holds Edge in Michigan (politicalwire.com)
- Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: A tenuous status quo for Mitt Romney (dailykos.com)