Tag Archives: Mitt Romney

Nate Silver Debunks Peggy Noonan’s Claim IRS Also Went After Individuals Opposing Obama

Mediaite

2012 electoral polling star, the New York Times’s Nate Silver, who was lauded for being right on all things 2012 election, is back crunching the numbers, this time on the IRS political targeting scandal, specifically firing back at WSJ columnist Peggy Noonan’s claim that the Obama IRS went after wealthy Republican individuals in addition to Tea Party groups in his FiveThirtyEight blog Friday.

Noonan had wrote, “The second part of the scandal is the auditing of political activists who have opposed the administration,” espousing the IRS scandal as the “worst Washington scandal since Watergate.” She went on to point out specific wealthy individuals in Idaho and Georgia that had never been audited until going against President Obama.

After conceding that some conservative Romney supporters were targeted, Silver explains those high income earners supporting President Obama were also targeted based on simple math. Silver displays a chart that estimates the amount of high-income earners that were audited in 2012 by way of the IRS’s Data Book. He estimates the share of the vote that went to Romney versus Obama in each income bracket based on exit polling.

His results seem to debunk Ms. Noonan’s argument that only wealthy conservative individuals supporting Mitt Romney yielded an IRS audit, with an estimated 380,000 Romney voters being audited compared to 480,00 Obama voters.

Silver makes the larger point that even without intentional political targeting, hundreds of thousands of conservative voted would have beens selected for audits as part of their normal process. He goes on to suggest Noonan cherry picked few examples in a pool of thousands:

The fact that Ms. Noonan has identified four conservatives from that group of thousands provides no evidence at all toward her hypothesis. Nor would it tell us very much if dozens or even hundreds of conservative activists disclosed that they had been audited. This is exactly what you would expect in a country where there are 1.5 million audits every year.

He concludes that a handful of “anecdotal” data points aren’t worth much in a country of over 300 million people.

h/t FiveThirtyEight

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In 2012 Election, African American Voters Surpassed White Turnout For The First Time Ever

Post image for They Tried, But They Could Not Stop Us. We Went To Court. We Stood In Line. We Voted! And We Won!

They tried to take our voice from us, but we would not let them. We stood in line. We endured their slings and arrows. We braved their threats and insults. And then, we voted…

This is great news.  In 2012 we stood our ground and defied the many attempts at voter suppression.  ”We stood in line”…

Think Progress

Though Republican election officials in battleground states sought to dampen voter turn out of traditionally Democratic voters through by instituting identification requirements and limiting early voting hours, a new analysis of census data by the Associated Press shows that African-Americans “voted at a higher rate than other minority groups in 2012 and by most measures surpassed the white turnout for the first time.”

The analysis finds that had “people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly”:

The 2012 data suggest Romney was a particularly weak GOP candidate, unable to motivate white voters let alone attract significant black or Latino support. Obama’s personal appeal and the slowly improving economy helped overcome doubts and spur record levels of minority voters in a way that may not be easily replicated for Democrats soon.

Romney would have erased Obama’s nearly 5 million-vote victory margin and narrowly won the popular vote if voters had turned out as they did in 2004,according to Frey’s analysis. Then, white turnout was slightly higher and black voting lower.

More significantly, the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida and Colorado would have tipped in favor of Romney, handing him the presidency if the outcome of other states remained the same.

African Americans outperformed their voter share, representing 13 percent of total votes cast in 2012 while making up 12 percent of the population — despite facing great obstacles to exercising the franchise.

A poll conducted by Hart Research poll immediately after the election reported that 22 percent of African-Americans waited 30 minutes or more to vote, compared to just 9 percent of white voters. A more thorough analysis from Massachusetts Institute of Technology confirmed that black and hispanic voters waited nearly twice as long to vote as whites. In Florida, home to the longest lines, at least 201,000 people may have been deterred from voting by the long waits.

Black youth was also far more likely to be asked to show ID, a study by professors at the University of Chicago and Washington University in St. Louis found, and many did not even try to vote because they lacked the required identification.

“The 2008 election was the first year when the minority vote was important to electing a U.S. president. By 2024, their vote will be essential to victory,” William H. Frey, a demographer who analyzed the 2012 elections for the AP, said. “Democrats will be looking at a landslide going into 2028 if the new Hispanic voters continue to favor Democrats.”

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Mother Jones: Frank Luntz Calls Right-Wing Talk Radio ‘Problematic’ For GOP

I would agree that right-wing talk radio is an Achilles heel for the GOP but they have bigger problems than that.  

They have an immigration problem, a gun problem, a people of color problem and a “stupid party” problem.  Not to mention their anti-abortion legislation problems.  Also the fact that the Tea Party won’t allow the GOP any amount of compromise not only stifles our government, it stifles the party as well.

Yep, what the GOP has…is a bad image problem.

TPM Livewire

GOP strategist Frank Luntz went off the record before a group of college Republicans earlier this month at the University of Pennsylvania to discuss the negative impact he believes right-walk talk radio has had on the GOP, Mother Jones reported Thursday.

“And they get great ratings, and they drive the message, and it’s really problematic,” Luntz said of right-wing talk-radio programs, according to a recording of the event. Luntz added that talk radio has been especially damaging to Sen. Marco Rubio’s immigration reform efforts.

“He’s getting destroyed,” Luntz said, “by Mark Levin, by Rush Limbaugh, and a few others. He’s trying to find a legitimate, long-term effective solution to immigration that isn’t the traditional Republican approach, and talk radio is killing him. That’s what’s causing this thing underneath. And too many politicians in Washington are playing coy.”

According to Mother Jones’ piece, written by David Corn, Luntz asked the audience to allow him to speak off the record, prompting one college newspaper reporter to switch off his device. But another student, Aakash Abbi, captured the sound bite on his iPhone.

Corn has built a reputation reporting on surreptitious recordings, starting with Mitt Romney’s “47 percent” comments and continuing with a secretly recorded Mitch McConnell campaign strategy meeting.

Listen to the audio and read Corn’s full piece here.

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10 things you need to know today: April 7, 2013

The Week

U.S. delays missile test amid North Korea tensions, Michigan and Louisville advance to the NCAA championship, and more in our roundup of the stories that are making the news and driving opinion

1. U.S. DELAYS BALLISTIC MISSILE TEST 
Amid reports that South Korea expects North Korea’s missile launch to be “days away,” a senior U.S. defense official confirmed that the Pentagon delayed an intercontinental ballistic missile test that was scheduled for next week at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The official says Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel decided to postpone the test because of ongoing tensions with North Korea. According to the source, the test was “long planned and was never associated with North Korea to begin with,” but “given recent tensions on the Korean Peninsula, it’s prudent and wise to take steps that avoid any misperception or chance of manipulation, so the test has been postponed.” The U.S. will conduct another test soon, the senior defense official said, adding that the U.S. “remains strongly committed to our nuclear deterrence capabilities.” [NBC News]
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2. SEVERAL STATES CONSIDER NEW GUN TAXES
Cook County, Ill., this month began collecting a $25 tax on gun purchases, and at least six states are considering new taxes on firearms or ammunition as a way to help pay for the consequences of gun violence. These states are studying whether to tax gun and ammunition purchases as a deterrent to gun ownership, a measure that detractors denounce as a violation of Second Amendment rights. Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle says the tax won’t necessarily serve as a deterrent to gun buyers, but “it’s an acknowledgment that we as a society pay a terrible price for the proliferation of guns.” Other states testing similar taxes and regulations include California, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Maryland. [Reuters]
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3. SIX AMERICANS KILLED IN AFGHANISTAN ATTACKS
Six Americans and an Afghan doctor were killed in attacks on Saturday in southern and eastern Afghanistan. This marks the deadliest day for U.S. citizens in Afghanistan this year. Included in the death toll is what is believed to be the first U.S. diplomat to be killed in Afghanistan since the war began. The attacks occurred on the same day that U.S. General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, arrived in Afghanistan for a visit aimed at assessing the level of training that American troops can provide to Afghan security forces after international combat forces complete their withdrawal at the end of 2014. The deaths bring the number of foreign military forces killed this year to 30, including 22 Americans. [Guardian]
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4. OBAMA WON’T IMPLEMENT ROMNEY-LIKE BUDGET PLAN
President Obama is willing to compromise on the budget, but he won’t yield to Republicans who want to enact a plan that looks like Mitt Romney’s, White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer said on ABC’s This Week. It’s Obama’s hope that Democrats and Republicans can “come together and work to try to find a compromise,” whether that happens through talks with House Speaker John Boehner or getting enough Senate Republicans on board to force a deal, Pfeiffer said. Some details of the president’s 2014 budget proposal were released Friday ahead of the full rollout on Wednesday and have drawn opposition from the right and the left. But Pfeiffer suggested that’s a sign of the president’s seriousness. [Politico]
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5. IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS REACH INCONCLUSIVE END
Iran and six world powers failed to reach agreement Saturday on how to reduce fears that Tehran might use its nuclear technology to make weapons during a summit in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Expectations that the negotiations were making progress rose as an afternoon session continued into the evening, but comments by the two sides after they ended made clear that they fell far short of making enough headway to qualify the meeting as a success. ”What matters in the end is substance, and we are still a considerable distance apart,” Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s head of foreign policy, told reporters at the end of the two-day talks. Sec. of State John Kerry has since defined the timetable for continued nuclear talks with Iran as “limited.” [Huffington Post]
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6. PASTOR RICK WARREN’S SON COMMITS SUICIDE
Evangelical Pastor Rick Warren’s son Matthew committed suicide on Friday, according to the Warren family. Warren delivered the news to his congregation in an emotional letter. ”At 27 years of age, Matthew was an incredibly kind, gentle and compassionate young man whose sweet spirit was encouragement and comfort to many,” Warren, the popular author of The Purpose Driven Life, said in the letter. “Unfortunately, he also suffered from mental illness resulting in deep depression and suicidal thoughts.” As a pioneer of the megachurch movement, Rick Warren looked to translate traditional evangelical messages to a wider audience. The pastor gave the invocation at President Barack Obama’s 2009 inauguration and penned The Purpose-Driven Life, a Christian self-help guide that became a mainstream best-seller. [CNN]
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7. JINDAL’S POPULARITY DWINDLES IN LOUISIANA
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, one of the nation’s most prominent Republicans and a possible 2016 presidential candidate, has fallen out of favor with local voters, and his bold plan to scrap the state income tax is running into trouble. Jindal was re-elected to a second term with two-thirds of the vote in 2011, but his Louisiana approval rating was down to 38 percent in a recent poll, worse than Democratic President Obama in one of the most conservative states. The poll suggested voters think he is spending more time traveling outside the state and burnishing his credentials for a possible White House run than tending to local matters. [Reuters]
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8. NASA PLANS TO LASSO ASTEROID CLOSE TO THE MOON
NASA is planning for a robotic spaceship to lasso a small asteroid and park it near the moon for astronauts to explore, according to Florida Sen. Ben Nelson. The robotic ship would capture the 500-ton 25-foot asteroid in 2019. Then using an Orion space capsule, now being developed, a crew of about four astronauts would nuzzle up next to the rock in 2021 for spacewalking exploration. Nelson, who is chairman of the Senate science and space subcommittee, said Friday that President Obama is putting $100 million in planning money for the accelerated asteroid mission in the 2014 budget that comes out next week. The money would be used to find the right small asteroid, which would help NASA develop the capability to nudge away a dangerous asteroid if one headed to Earth in the future. [Politico]
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9. FORMER GEORGE W. BUSH FAITH LEADER, LATER CRITIC, DIES
J. David Kuo, an evangelical Christian who was a leader in President George W. Bush’s faith initiative but who later became a critic of it, died on Friday at the age of 44. Kuo’s wife, Kimberly, said the cause was brain cancer, which was diagnosed 10 years ago. As deputy director of Bush’s Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives, Kuo helped implement Bush’s promise to link the nation’s religious groups with the delivery of social services. But Kuo left the administration after two years. He later wrote that the faith office did not receive the billions of dollars that Bush had pledged and said the White House had used the office as a political prop. [New York Times]
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10. MICHIGAN, LOUISVILLE TO PLAY IN NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The University of Michigan advanced to the NCAA national championship game with a 61-56 victory over Syracuse in the Final Four on Saturday night. Michigan will be going for its first national title since 1989 when it faces Louisville on Monday at the Georgia Dome. Louisville defeated its unexpectedly fierce competitor, Wichita State, earlier in the evening, to advance to the championship game. [ESPN]

 

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Maddow: Republicans still trying to intrude into your bedroom

Maddow: Republicans still trying to intrude into your bedroom (via Raw Story )

Friday night on “The Rachel Maddow Show,” host Rachel Maddow pointed out that in spite of whatever attempts the GOP is making at the national level at rebranding itself, the party is lost without its “bedroom intrusion agenda.” Even as national Republicans like Olympia Snowe come out in favor…

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Inside the NRA’s Koch-Funded Dark Money Campaign

Man holding guns

Illustration: Mark Matcho

Anything that’s “Koch-funded” implies dark money

Mother Jones

“This election is going to be won on the ground,” Chris Cox, the National Rifle Association’s top lobbyist, told me early last year as the gun lobby prepared to launch its all-out campaign to defeat Barack Obama. Historically, pro-gun voters have favored Republicans by a margin of 2- or 3-to-1, but that only matters if they vote. And, Cox stressed, millions of gun owners were not registered yet.

The NRA’s get-out-the-vote effort, its most ambitious ever, would target gun owners from all angles. Its field workers would register them at gun shows and gun shops in battleground states such as Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. The NRA spent millions on TV spots; one seven-figure ad buy last October attacked the president for “chipping away” at Second Amendment rights, urging Americans to “defend freedom.” Chuck Norris, a spokesman for the NRA’s Trigger the Vote campaign, warned apathetic gun owners, “I’ll come looking for the people who sat this election out.”

Mobilizing the NRA’s estimated 4 million members ”is always a critical part of the equation for us on the Republican side,” says Charlie Black, a veteran GOP operative who was an adviser to Mitt Romney’s and Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaigns.

But 2012 was different: The NRA wasn’t simply reaching out to its core constituency—it was reeling in big checks from conservative funders eager to take advantage of its grassroots muscle. The arrangement was mutually beneficial: The NRA burnished its reputation as a political force to be reckoned with, while donors invested in the kind of all-out GOTV effort they had once expected from the Republican Party itself.

Continue reading…

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Politico’s Week In One-Liners 3-31-2013

AP Photo, Reuters

The top quotes in politics…

“Busted.” — President Barack Obama describing his March Madness bracket.

“Regretfully, I am currently unable to consider a campaign for the Senate.” — Actress Ashley Judd bowing out.

“It’s good to live a normal life again.” — Former White House hopeful Mitt Romney appreciating post-campaign life.

“I think email just sucks up time.” — Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano expressing some thoughts on technology.

“Believe me, nobody’s going to get naked if I’m spending the entire day with Prince Harry.” — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie making a promise.

“This is inevitable.” — Radio host Rush Limbaugh on same-sex marriage.

“If you like it you should be able to put a ring on it.” — Beyonce weighing in on the debate.

 

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Ben Carson should not run for president

Dr. Ben Carson speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland on March 16.

The GOP’s infatuation with the good doctor is indicative of larger problems…

The Week

His name is Ben Carson. He is a graduate of Yale and the University of Michigan Medical School. He is the director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins. He won the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2008 for his contributions to medicine and his work in education. He is articulate. He is attractive. He is likeable. He is conservative. “He loves Jesus,” according to one Republican senator. He is black. Oh, and Cuba Gooding Jr. once played him in a movie.

Given his background, it’s hardly surprising that conservatives would want Dr. Carson to enter the political fray on their side. But when conservatives got their first glimpse of the world-famous doctor speaking in a quasi-political forum, the Fox News crowd reacted with the sort of giddiness that one might expect to see out of a 14-year-old girl who had just met Justin Bieber.

Carson’s debut came during last month’s National Prayer Breakfast. With President Obama sitting just feet away, Carson politely, calmly, and eloquently highlighted some of ObamaCare’s most obvious flaws, and proposed some simple, common-sense solutions. For conservatives, it was love at first sight. Video of the event immediately went viral and conservative commentators took to whatever bullhorn they could find to sing Carson’s praises. Rush Limbaugh proclaimed that Dr. Carson “probably (has) everybody in the Democrat party scared to death.” The editorial board of The Wall Street Journal took Carson-mania a step further, running a glowing review of the speech under the headline “Ben Carson for President.”

Chatter about Carson’s political career only intensified earlier this month, when he followed up his Prayer Breakfast triumph with a speech at CPAC in which he left open the possibility of a presidential run. Many conservatives appear to be very fond of this possibility.

But it would be a terrible mistake if Carson ran for president. If he really wants to be a player, the perfect opportunity has opened up for him in his home state of Michigan. Sen. Carl Levin (D) has announced that he will be retiring at the end of his current term, and if Carson were to win that seat, he would emerge as one of the most prominent and intelligent faces of the GOP. He would also gain valuable campaign and political experience that may enable him to make a run at the White House (for real) in 2020 or 2024. (Alternately, if Carson simply wants to become super famous and make a ton of money as an analyst on Fox News, then by all means, run for president. But the country needs smart leaders a hell of a lot more than it needs another talking head.)

That conservatives are taking a Carson candidacy seriously speaks to a much broader problem in the GOP. Obama’s political success has lead many conservatives to mistakenly believe that the GOP’s failures are principally personality-driven. They are not. Obama is a very talented politician, but the fact that the Democrats are in charge of the White House has a lot less to do with Barack Obama or Mitt Romney or any other character than it does with the conservative movement’s inability to connect with voters, which was recently laid bare by a much-publicized “autopsy” report. If Hillary Clinton had been the nominee, she would have won in 2008 and in 2012. Mitt Romney was awkward and boring, but the conservative brand and, to some degree, conservative ideas were the major reason Romney did not knock off Obama.

Rather than wondering whether Marco, Jeb, Rand, Bobby, Chris, or Ben Carson can retake the White House on the strength of charisma alone, we would do well to focus all of our energy on applying conservative values to modern problems. That way, if the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan does not show up before 2016, we still might have a shot at winning the election, because we will be armed with ideas and solutions to tackle the great problems of the day.

 

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Saturday Blog Roundup – 3-16-13

Quote of the Day

CPAC 2013: Pictures and notes

An Interview with Chris Hayes

Maryland Bans The Death Penalty

10 Crazy Gun Laws Introduced Since Newtown

Elizabeth Warren Goes After NRA, Big Banks, GOP

Video: Sen. Portman changes stance on same sex marriage

Catholic cardinal says that pedophilia is not a ‘criminal condition’

Rachel Maddow and Bill Maher: proposed Ryan budget is ‘laughable’

Top GOP Senator: We Lost On Obamacare, But We’re Going to Keep Trying To Repeal It Anyway

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Mystery man behind ’47 percent’ video revealed

prouty

Scott Prouty

Get ready for the far-right’s all out assault on Scott Prouty…

The Raw Story

The curtain has been lifted.

The man who secretly filmed then-presidential candidate Mitt Romney telling a private audience that “47 percent” of voters would vote for President Obama “no matter what,” outed himself Wednesday night during an hour-long segment on “The Ed Show.”

Scott Prouty, a bartender who was working Romney’s private meeting with major contributors at a Boca Raton, Fla. fundraiser, told Ed Schultz, “I was behind this whole thing.”

”I didn’t go there with a grudge against Romney,” said Prouty. “… I really had no idea he would say what he said.”

The “47 percent” remark is considered — even by Romney himself — to have been a major blow to the campaign. Prouty said he remained anonymous in the aftermath of the comment  because he didn’t want to distract from the video itself.

“I wanted Mitt Romney’s words, and Mitt Romney’s words only” to be the news story, said Prouty.

According to the Washington Post, Prouty said he expects “to be torn apart by the right-wing media,” now that he’s come forward.

Watch a segment of the interview below:

 

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