Yesterday the conservative pundits (and some Dems as well) all but declared Mitt Romney the potential winner of the 2012 Presidential race.
Mitt Romney may have gotten one of the shortest post-debate bounces in history as swing state and national polls reveal Obama in the lead.
The big confusion today has been over the Gallup daily tracking poll. On Monday morning, the Gallup daily tracking poll had the race tied at 47%-47%, but by Monday afternoon, the poll was updated to show President Obama leading 50%-45%.
So, what gives?
It turns out that Gallup broke with their own tradition, and changed their methodology. Instead of using a 7 day rolling average, they compared two sets of three day averages. Monday afternoon’s update included Saturday and Sunday polling. When they returned to the 7 day average, and included polling after the new jobs numbers were released, President Obama returned to a 50%-45% lead.
More data is needed, but it seems that Mitt Romney got roughly a one day bounce from the debate. The combination of Romney being called out across all media for his barrage of lies along with the vastly improved unemployment rate worked together to virtually neutralize any bounce that Romney had gained from Wednesday night.
The latest swing state polls are coming in, and it looks like the Romney bounce is also fading at the state level. The latest polling of Colorado shows Obama leading Romney 47%-43%, and in Virginia, the president leads 50%-47%. Even conservative pollster Rasmussen has Obama leading in Colorado and Iowa. Rasmussen polls are frequently cited by conservatives and Fox News, but they have been found to have a4 point bias towards Republicans. So when Rasmussen claims Obama is up by one (Colorado) or two (Iowa) the potential Obama lead could be closer to 5 or 6 points.
- GALLUP: Obama Bouncing Back Already To 5-Point Lead (businessinsider.com)
- Romney’s Post Debate Bounce Evaporates as Obama Returns to Leading by 5 (politicususa.com)
- Polls Are Collapsing For Obama All Over The Place, After The Debate (tarpon.wordpress.com)
- Oct. 8: A Great Poll for Romney, in Perspective (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com)
- Gallup: Romney tied with Obama after scoring historic debate win (thehill.com)
- Romney pulls even with Obama in first post-debate Gallup poll (foxnews.com)