“President Barack Obama has received a [6-point] boost in the polls over the last month,” according to Quinnipiac. And, as he has consistently, Obama leads “Republican challengers by five to 16 percentage points in head-to-head matchups.”
A political rule of thumb: any national lead of 8 points or more translates into a virtually unbeatable electoral college total (i.e., a presidential candidate simply cannot rack up those percentages without leading in the correspondingly necessary states).
That said, in politics November of 2011 is to November of 2012 what Jerry Lewis was to comedy. It was the NY Times’ John Harwood, I believe, who earlier today said on MSNBC that Obama is unquestionably doing better in the polls, but he’s not yet “safe for reelection.” That’s why I listen to professional, political color commentary on cable news. One cannot find that incisive level of in-depth analysis just anywhere.
To repeat the bloody obvious, Harwood-style, it’s a long and unpredictable road to Election Day. Yet given Obama’s rather undeviating leads over Mitt Romney in the neighborhood of 5 points (and probably counting) — during the worst economy in three-quarters of a century — his reelection is morphing safer by the day.
- Obama’s Poll Rebound: Almost As Many Approve as Disapprove! (outsidethebeltway.com)
- Quinnipiac poll: President Obama gains ground (dailykos.com)
- Obama comes out swinging and guess what? (cbsnews.com)
- Polling bounce for Obama? (hotair.com)
- US-2012 Primary: 30% Cain, 23% Romney, 10% Gingrich, 8% Perry (Quinnipiac 10/25-31) (huffingtonpost.com)
- Don’t Blame Rick Perry Or Even Trump For Keeping The Birther Controversy Alive. Blame The Media. (mediaite.com)
- New Poll Shows Good News For Herman Cain, Better News For President Obama (mediaite.com)